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FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE
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Annual Oilseeds Report 2008
EU-27 oilseeds production for marketing in MY
2008/09 is forecast at 26.8 MMT, an increase of 10 percent compared to the
last season. Because of expected better yields, EU-27 rapeseed production
is forecast to increase by 5 percent despite a decrease in area. In
response to the growing demand from the biofuel sector, oil millers have
increased crushing capacity for rapeseed partly at the expense of
soybeans. As a result, rapeseed imports and soybean oil imports are
expected to increase while imports of soybeans are forecast to decline.
Current EU discussions on future biofuel use targets could substantially
increase EU-27 vegetable oil demand in coming years. However, discussions
on feedstock sustainability criteria and the EU's biotech approval system
could result in sizeable market access issues for U.S. oilseeds and
products beginning in MY 2009/10.
Oilseeds Update October 2008: Sunflower harvest has been concluded in the EU-27 with record yields. Increasing imports of highly price competitive sunflower meal are expected to push up feed use of sunflower meal at the expense of imported soybean meal. Sowing condition for winter rapeseed showed a large variation from excellent to very poor. GAIN Report E48123 Oilseeds Update September 2008: EU-27 production estimate for rapeseed, sunflower seeds and soybeans was revised upwards as more information about higher yields became available mainly in Hungary, France, and Slovakia. Production is now estimated at 19.2 million, 6.5 million and 662,000 MT, respectively. GAIN Report E48109
Oilseeds Update August 2008:
The rapeseed harvest is
almost concluded throughout the EU-27. Most member states report better
yields than anticipated. As a result, EU-27 rapeseed production is now
estimated slightly higher at 19 MMT, despite a reduction in the area
estimate compared to the figure stated in the July report. In contrast,
EU-27 production of soybeans and sunflower seed is forecast lower than
in last month's report mainly because of lower yield prospects in
Romania. Sunflower seed production is forecast at 6.1 MMT and soybean
production at 645,000 MMT.
Oilseeds Update June 2008: MY 2008/09 production estimates for EU-27 soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds have been revised down slightly compared to previous forecasts. Rapeseed production is expected to have suffered from lack of rain in north-east Germany, while updated information on sowing resulted in the changes in the soybean and sunflower estimates. GAIN Report E48073
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Rapeseed
Despite a lower per hectare
rapeseed harvest this year, the EU sees a record harvest crop in 2005.
This is caused by an increased area planted with rapeseed, a trend that
seems to continue also in 2006. The high demand for oil for the production
of biodiesel is keeping the price for rapeseed oil high in the EU, above
the world market prices. Favorable crush margins make crushers shift from
soybeans to rapeseed.
European crushers are substituting rapeseed for soybeans because of the higher crush margins for rapeseed, due to the biodiesel boom. Rapeseed oil prices are high in the EU but the prices for unprocessed rapeseed remain unchanged, as biodiesel boom has not yet directly affected EU farmers. Imports of soyoil and soymeal have increased over the last three years. Brazil is the largest supplier. Norway is the third largest supplier, however Norway's processed products are made from soybeans originating from Brazil. GAIN Report E36051 (March 2006) |
Blair HouseThe 1992 Blair House Memorandum of Understanding on Oilseeds (or Blair House Agreement) between the U.S. and the EU was an important element of the final Uruguay Round Agreement for agriculture. The Blair House Agreement (BHA) is contained in the EU's WTO schedule of commitments and resolved a GATT dispute over EU domestic support programs that impaired access to the EU oilseeds market. Under the Agreement, EU oilseed plantings (mainly rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybeans) for food purposes are limited to an adjusted Maximum Guaranteed Area (MGA) for producers benefiting from crop specific oilseeds payments. This limits the EU oilseeds production area and penalizes overproduction. BHA also limits the production of industrial/non-food use oilseeds on set-aside area. Output from oilseeds planted on set-aside land for industrial purposes is limited to 1 MMT soybean meal equivalent annually. The CAP Reform of 2003 introduced the so-called Carbon Credit, which grants a payment of EUR 45/ha to growers of energy crops, including crops grown for the production of biodiesel and bioethanol. It is not yet clear how much take up there will be of this program. Provisional data for 2004, the first year that it was implemented, suggest that around 300,000 ha of carbon credits were claimed. The vast majority of this area was planted to rapeseed for biodiesel. The EUR 45/ha subsidy, due to its low level, is expected to have only little impact in the short run on EU production of energy crops. For a more detailed description of the policy on the EU with regard to oilseeds and the impact of Agenda 2000 reforms in the arable crop sector, consult GAIN report E21088. |
Member State Reports:
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