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Article Alert February 2012

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Article Alert is a monthly service featuring some of the most interesting journal literature on relations concerning the U.S. and Europe. It is published every month except for August.

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EU Issues

TOWARDS A MIGHTY UNION: HOW TO CREATE A DEMOCRATIC EUROPEAN SUPERPOWER. Brendan Simms, International Affairs, January 2012, pp.49-62. “The project of European integration is on the verge of complete collapse. Twenty years after Europe’s failure to deal with ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia, the common foreign and security policy of the European Union has been thrown into disarray by Germany’s refusal to join the coalition to prevent Colonel Qadhafi from carrying out a massacre of his own people in eastern Libya. There is no common European position on Russian ambitions in the Caucasus, Baltic and the Ukraine, on the growth of Chinese power, or on the Iranian nuclear programme. Nearly two years into the euro crisis, ‘Europe’ is no closer to a solution of the sovereign debt problems on its southern periphery. The brief rattling of the bond begging bowl in China was received with the contempt it deserved. A disintegration of the eurozone, or at least a division between the ‘core’ northern members and the rest, is now as likely as not. Worse still, Europe is in the midst of a fundamental crisis of democracy, as the growth of ‘economic governance’ threatens to disenfranchise whole peoples. The Italians and Greeks are now effectively ruled by ‘technocrats’ and ‘experts’ working to instructions from Paris and Berlin. The alternative—demanding that the Germans dig deeper into their pockets to support the euro, without asking the German people and in defiance of the treaties on which the currency union was concluded—is no more satisfactory. READ MORE

CONFLICTING ROLE CONCEPTIONS? THE EUROPEAN UNION IN GLOBAL POLITICS. Rikard Bengtsson, Ole Elgström, Foreign Policy Analysis, January 2012, pp. 93–108. “This article utilizes role theory for analysing the role(s) of the European Union (EU) in global politics. Specifically addressing the interplay of the EU’s own role perception and the role expectations held by other actors, the article contributes two case studies of the role(s) of the EU in relation to two important but different actor groupings—Eastern Europe including Russia and the ACP countries in the developing world, respectively. The analysis points to the tensions that exist between self-perceptions and the perceptions of the EU’s counterparts in Eastern Europe and the developing world, and how these tensions influences the interaction between the actors.” READ MORE

CENTRIFUGAL EUROPE. Charles A. Kupchan, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 111-118. “The project of European integration is experiencing its gravest political crisis to date. Ongoing debate about how to restore the financial stability of the eurozone has exposed deep rifts within the EU, calling into question the solidarity that is the hallmark of political union. At stake is the survival not just of the euro, but the EU itself. The EU’s debt crisis poses a particularly potent threat to the project of European integration because it is both a consequence and a cause of a more serious malady: the renationalisation of European politics. Confronted with the powerful intrusions of both European integration and globalisation, electorates in EU member states have for the better part of a decade staged a mounting revolt against Brussels and its supranational brand of governance. Unwanted immigration, growing inequality, fraying welfare states, stagnant wages, bailout and austerity packages – these developments have produced a wave of popular discontent, which is in turn exacting a heavy toll on the EU as angry voters press for the repatriation of political control and the restoration of national autonomy.” READ MORE

THE EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS: PROSPECTS FOR EUROPE, CHINA, AND THE UNITED STATES. Dan Steinbock, American Foreign Policy Interests, January 2012, pp. 34-42.  “In the aftermath of fall 2008, the global financial crisis was often characterized as the most severe since the Great Depression. After hopes for a quick rebound proved futile, the consensus began to expect that the recovery might take longer than originally anticipated. The challenges of the Eurozone suggest that overcoming the global economic crisis is likely to take more than half a decade, with no return to “business as usual.” Europe suffers from a multitude of economic crises—caused, for the most part, by front-loaded austerity measures and inadequate fiscal support, exhausted traditional monetary instruments, toxic assets in the European Central Bank, insolvency and liquidity challenges, and lack of pro-growth policies. These are complicated, in turn, by fragmented political decision making and institutional flaws in the integration process. The deterioration of the Eurozone has often cast China as a potential savior.” READ MORE

A TRANSATLANTIC FREE TRADE AREA – A BOOST TO ECONOMIC GROWTH? Daniel S. Hamilton and Pedro Schwartz, TAP, January 2012, var. pages. “European leaders continue to squabble about efforts needed to end the euro crisis, but they have coalesced around calls in late January 2012 by German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Cameron to open transatlantic markets. US President Obama has also endorsed the bid. At the US-EU Summit last fall, leaders created a bilateral High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth to consider the full range of measures that could be taken to deepen and expand the transatlantic economic relationship. The benefits could be substantial in terms of creating jobs, boosting innovation, improving our competitiveness, and ensuring long-term growth and prosperity. It is a moment of opportunity – to use or to lose. To win the moment, business and other economic stakeholders must unite with political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to advance a shared vision, built on underlying values, to harness the potential of our partnership to create jobs, stimulate growth, and strengthen the multilateral system.” READ MORE 

THE FUTURE OF HISTORY. Francis Fukuyama, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2012, var. pages. "Stagnating wages and growing inequality will soon threaten the stability of con­temporary liberal democracies and dethrone democratic ideology as it is now understood. What is needed is a new populist ideology that offers a realistic path to healthy middle-class societies and robust democracies." READ MORE

FOR US, EUROPE’S DEBT WOES ARE AN OCEAN AWAY. Bruse Stokes, YaleGlobal, February 13, 2012, var. pp. The European debt crisis is once again in headlines as Greece approved austerity measures to satisfy creditors, prompting riots in the streets of Athens. Earlier Italy, Spain and other beleaguered nations had rolled over some of their debt. But experience over the last two years suggests that these sovereign debt problems ebb and flow on a daily basis, and Europe’s long nightmare is far from over. The potential implosion of the eurozone remains a grave threat to the world economy. READ MORE


NATO'S VICTORY IN LIBYA. THE RIGHT WAY TO RUN AN INTERVENTION. By Ivo H. Daalder and James G. Stavridis, Foreign Affairs, February 2, 2012, var. pp. “NATO's operation in Libya has rightly been hailed as a model intervention. The alliance responded rapidly to a deteriorating situation that threatened hundreds of thousands of civilians rebelling against an oppressive regime. It succeeded in protecting those civilians and, ultimately, in providing the time and space necessary for local forces to overthrow Muammar al-Qaddafi. And it did so by involving partners in the region and sharing the burden among the alliance's members. NATO's involvement in Libya demonstrated that the alliance remains an essential source of stability. But to preserve that role, NATO must solidify the political cohesion and shared capabilities that made the operation in Libya possible -- particularly as its leaders prepare for the upcoming NATO summit in Chicago this May.” READ MORE

NATO AND EMERGING SECURITY CHALLENGES: BEYOND THE DETERRENCE PARADIGM. Michael Rühle, American Foreign Policy Interests, November 2011 , pp. 278-282.
“New security challenges, ranging from cyberattacks to failing states, cannot be deterred by the threat of military retaliation, nor will military operations be the appropriate response in most cases. Instead, the emphasis must be on prevention and enhancing resilience. If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wants to play a meaningful role in addressing such challenges, it will have to develop a clearer understanding of the nature of these challenges, build closer ties with other nations and institutions, and seek partnerships with the private sector. Above all, allies will have to use NATO as a forum for discussing emerging security challenges and their implications.” READ MORE

TOWARD A NEW TRANSATLANTIC BARGAIN. Karl-Heinz Kamp and Kurt Volker, February 1, 2012, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, var. pp. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is often described as the most successful military alliance in history. In addition to longevity, those characterizing NATO this way are usually thinking of the Alliance’s role in protecting freedom and guaranteeing peace in Europe against a hostile Soviet Union, right up until the Iron Curtain fell. NATO’s role in ending ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, and in helping to reintegrate Central and Eastern Europe into the mainstream of the continent, only added to this positive image of the Alliance. For NATO to hold together all this time—even amid such monumental challenges as the Suez crisis, the Hungarian revolution, the Prague Spring, Vietnam, Pershing missiles, and Kosovo—it is clear that allies maintained an underlying commitment to each other and to the cause of an alliance greater than the sum of its parts. The recognition that each side of the Atlantic was willing to sacrifice a bit to the other for the benefit of the whole is what is meant by the concept of a “transatlantic bargain.” For decades, this transatlantic bargain—though predominantly unstated and uncodified—was instinctively understood and acted upon. In more recent years, this transatlantic bond has been sorely tested, over the war in Iraq, over different perceptions of Russia, of missile defense, of terrorism, and even over differing interpretations of relations with Georgia and Ukraine. Whether or how NATO survives the severity of these tests still remains to be seen. NATO will surely come out best, however, if there is a renewed commitment on both sides of the Atlantic to some of the fundamentals of the Alliance that are important to both sides—a renewal of the transatlantic bargain.” READ MORE


CHINA AND EAST ASIAN DEMOCRACY: THE COMING WAVE. Larry Diamond. Current History, January 2012, pp. 5-13. ”If there is going to be a great advance of democracy in this decade, it is most likely going to emanate from East Asia.” READ MORE

CHINA'S CENTURY? WHY AMERICA'S EDGE WILL ENDURE. Michael Beckley, International Security, Winter 2011/12, pp. 41–78. “Two assumptions dominate current foreign policy debates in the United States and China. First, the United States is in decline relative to China. Second, much of this decline is the result of globalization and the hegemonic burdens the United States bears to sustain globalization. Both of these assumptions are wrong. The United States is not in decline; in fact, it is now wealthier, more innovative, and more militarily powerful compared to China than it was in 1991. Moreover, globalization and hegemony do not erode U.S. power; they reinforce it. The United States derives competitive advantages from its hegemonic position, and globalization allows it to exploit these advantages, attracting economic activity and manipulating the international system to its benefit. The United States should therefore continue to prop up the global economy and maintain a robust diplomatic and military presence abroad.” READ MORE

CONFRONTING A POWERFUL CHINA WITH WESTERN CHARACTERISTICS. James Kurth, Orbis, Winter 2012, pp. 39–59. “The rapid rise of Chinese economic and military power has produced the most fundamental change in the global system since the end of the Cold War, and it poses vital questions about China's future direction. Many Western analysts argue that China's great power will cause it to become more like the West, i.e., like Western great powers. Other Western analysts believe that China will continue to be the same, i.e., like the China of the past few decades. An alternative interpretation, however, is that China's new power will enable it to become even more Chinese than it is now, i.e., to become more like the traditional and imperial China that existed before the Western intrusions of the 19th century.” READ MORE

THE PATTERNS OF HISTORY. Francis Fukuyama, Current History, January 2012, pp. 14-26. “The legitimacy and appeal of democracy in East Asia will depend on how democratic countries in the region stack up against China.” READ MORE


THE ARTIC IS NOW: ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE LAST FRONTIER. Melissa Bert, American Foreign Policy Interests, January 2012, pp. 5-19. “With an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil, 220 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rare earth minerals, and massive renewable wind, tidal, and geothermal energy resources, the economic potential of the Alaskan Arctic can be measured in the trillions of dollars. Although the other Arctic nations are parties to the Law of the Sea Convention and are already developing their nations’ Arctic resources, the United States has failed to ratify the convention or develop a plan for the region. Now is the time for the Obama administration to advance a comprehensive Arctic strategy that addresses both governance and acquisition requirements, or it risks further harm to the nation's economic and national security.” READ MORE

GEOPOLITICS AND THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE. Margaret Blunden, International Affairs, January 2012, pp. 115-129. “Experimental transit voyages along the Northern Sea Route to the north of Russia are breaking new ground each year and the route is already significant for the export of raw materials from Russian ports. National and corporate interests are now driving Russia's Arctic policy, rather than, as formerly, an exclusive focus on security, and the Russian government has ambitious plans for the development of the route. Future regular transit of the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia, at present facing serious obstacles, could be accelerated not only by climate change, but by overload on, or interruptions to, the existing route through the Suez Canal, which passes through some of the world's most volatile regions. Despite the formidable impediments to regular year round transit of the Northern Sea Route, governments of the non-Arctic states with most at stake, particularly Germany and China, appear to be taking no chances, and to be jockeying for influence in the Arctic region. The interests of the non-Arctic trading states, and of the European Union, more inclined to view the Arctic Ocean as part of the ‘common heritage of mankind’, are however potentially different from those of Russia, and indeed of Canada in respect of the North East passage, both determined to maintain their exclusive national jurisdiction over emerging sea lanes through their territorial waters.”  READ MORE

POWER PARADOX: CLEAN MIGHT NOT BE GREEN FOREVER. Anil Ananthaswamy and Michael Le Page, New Scientist, 30 January 2012, var. pp.  “As energy demand grows, even alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and nuclear fusion could begin to affect the climate Editorial: "Taking the long view on the world's energy supplies" "A better, richer and happier life for all our citizens." That's the American dream. In practice, it means living in a spacious, air-conditioned house, owning a car or three and maybe a boat or a holiday home, not to mention flying off to exotic destinations. The trouble with this lifestyle is that it consumes a lot of power. If everyone in the world started living like wealthy Americans, we'd need to generate more than 10 times as much energy each year. And if, in a century or three, we all expect to be looked after by an army of robots and zoom up into space on holidays, we are going to need a vast amount more. Where are we going to get so much power from? It is clear that continuing to rely on fossil fuels will have catastrophic results, because of the dramatic warming effect of carbon dioxide. But alternative power sources will affect the climate too. For now, the climatic effects of "clean energy" sources are trivial compared with those that spew out greenhouse gases, but if we keep on using ever more power over the coming centuries, they will become ever more significant. While this kind of work is still at an early stage, some startling conclusions are already beginning to emerge. Nuclear power - including fusion - is not the long-term answer to our energy problems.” READ MORE


OBAMA, EXPLAINED. James Fallows, The Atlantic, March 2012, var. pp. “As Barack Obama contends for a second term in office, two conflicting narratives of his presidency have emerged. Is he a skillful political player and policy visionary—a chess master who always sees several moves ahead of his opponents (and of the punditocracy)? Or is he politically clumsy and out of his depth—a pawn overwhelmed by events, at the mercy of a second-rate staff and of the Republicans? Here, a longtime analyst of the presidency takes the measure of our 44th president, with a view to history.” READ MORE

NOT FADE AWAY: THE MYTH OF AMERICAN DECLINE. Robert Kagan, The New Republic, January 11, 2012, var. pages. “Is the United States in decline, as so many seem to believe these days? Or are Americans in danger of committing pre-emptive superpower suicide out of a misplaced fear of their own declining power? A great deal depends on the answer to these questions. The present world order—characterized by an unprecedented number of democratic nations; a greater global prosperity, even with the current crisis, than the world has ever known; and a long peace among great powers—reflects American principles and preferences, and was built and preserved by American power in all its political, economic, and military dimensions. If American power declines, this world order will decline with it. It will be replaced by some other kind of order, reflecting the desires and the qualities of other world powers. Or perhaps it will simply collapse, as the European world order collapsed in the first half of the twentieth century. The belief, held by many, that even with diminished American power “the underlying foundations of the liberal international order will survive and thrive,” as the political scientist G. John Ikenberry has argued, is a pleasant illusion. American decline, if it is real, will mean a different world for everyone.” READ MORE

THE OBAMA MEMOS. The New Yorker, Ryan Lizza, January 30, 2012, var. pages. “The making of a post-post-partisan Presidency. Ryan Lizza writes about the making of Obama's post-post-partisan presidency, referencing hundreds of pages of internal White House memos showing Obama grappling with the unpleasant choices of government.” READ MORE

LEADING FROM BEHIND. Michael Hirsh, The National Journal, January 24, 2012, var. pages. “Romney may become the nominee, but he’s still playing breathless catch-up with the views of GOP voters. As president, would he do the same? [...] What Romney doesn’t have yet—and may not get even if he wins the White House—is a GOP base that believes in him or is even certain quite who he is and what he stands for. Many conservatives suspect that Romney, who was born in one blue state (Michigan) and made his fortune in an even bluer one (Massachusetts), is just not one of them. They see him, somewhat accurately, as a numbers-driven pragmatist who leans right but has changed positions on too many issues to be considered a true believer. On RedState, a popular tea party website, activist Dan McLaughlin wrote an elegant, much-noted essay expressing worries that a Romney nomination would mean “we would all have to make so many compromises to defend him that at the end of the day we may not even recognize ourselves. Romney has, in a career in public office of just four years (plus about eight years’ worth of campaigning), changed his position on just about every major issue you can think of, and his signature accomplishment in office was to be wrong on the largest policy issue [health care] of this campaign.” So if Romney wins the nomination and the presidency, he will have to spend as much time wooing the mainstream of his own party as he will winning over the Democrats.” READ MORE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CAN OBAMA WITHSTAND THE REPUBLICAN CHALLENGE? Bob Benenson, The CQ Researcher, February 3, 2012 , pp. 101-124. “The 2012 contest pitting President Obama against a yet-to-be-determined Republican challenger ranks as one of the most intriguing presidential campaigns in history. Two powerful populist factions — the conservative Tea Party movement and Occupy Wall Street protest against income inequality — are helping to shape campaign ideologies and stump speeches. An unusually large field of Republican candidates, including multimillionaire Mormon Mitt Romney and thrice-married Newt Gingrich, have fought each other as aggressively as they have Obama, leaving the GOP so fractured that some think a nominee won't emerge until the party convention in August. Meanwhile, following a controversial Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance, wealthy donors are pouring millions of dollars into TV attack ads through so-called SuperPACs. And overshadowing the entire spectacle is the shaky U.S. economy and the question of which candidate is best equipped to turn it around.” READ MORE


ARAB SPRING: A PARTIAL AWAKENING. Vincent Cannistraro, Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 2011, pp. 36-45. “The Arab Spring has affected interests of the Western democracies in the Middle and Near Eastern nations, and the instability will compel changes in American policies for the region. There have been political revisions and in some cases nontraditional modifications in moribund autocracies and dictatorships across the Arab world, reaching to the Arab and Persian Gulfs. The awakening has been enervated by violent responses from more cohesive and profound dictatorships in Syria and Libya, but the “leaderless” model of the awakening can quickly bring together disparate groups working toward a common goal. As the process across the Arab world unfolds, American interests will need to be addressed in ways different from the past. New American wars will not be a promising option. The region’s challenges require a serious and consistent policy toward resolving the core issues of instability, and that includes overcoming domestic opinion and lobbies that work against a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The current demographic prospect is that Israel will lose its Zionist hopes by the forced integration of Palestinians who have lost their own hope of a viable and independent nation.” READ MORE

LETTER FROM DAMASCUS: WILL SYRIA DESCEND INTO CIVIL WAR? Sami Moubayed, Current History, December 2011, pp. 339-344. “Many in the opposition are now saying the regime is stronger than they had imagined.” READ MORE

NO FRIEND OF DEMOCRATIZATION: EUROPE'S ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THE 'ARAB SPRING'. Rosemary Hollis, International Affairs, January 2012, pp. 81–94. “The argument advanced in this article is that EU policies helped to trigger the so-called Arab Spring, not by intention but by default. This contention is advanced through an examination of four strands of EU policy towards those countries designated as Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) under the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Programme (EMP) and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), namely: trade and economic development, political reform, the ‘peace process’, and regional security (including migration control). What emerges is that the EU has not just departed from its own normative principles and aspirations for Arab reform in some instances, but that the EU has consistently prioritized European security interests over ‘shared prosperity’ and democracy promotion in the Mediterranean. The net result is a set of structured, institutionalized and securitized relationships which will be difficult to reconfigure and will not help Arab reformers attain their goals.” READ MORE

THE 2011 UPRISINGS IN THE ARAB MIDDLE EAST: POLITICAL CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS. Katerina Dalacoura, International Affairs, January 2012, pp 63–79. “The Arab uprisings of 2011 are still unfolding, but we can already discern patterns of their effects on the Middle East region. This article offers a brief chronology of events, highlighting their inter-connections but also their very diverse origins, trajectories and outcomes. It discusses the economic and political grievances at the root of the uprisings and assesses the degree to which widespread popular mobilization can be attributed to pre-existing political, labour and civil society activism, and social media. It argues that the uprisings' success in overthrowing incumbent regimes depended on the latter's responses and relationships with the army and security services. The rebellions' inclusiveness or lack thereof was also a crucial factor. The article discusses the prospects of democracy in the Arab world following the 2011 events and finds that they are very mixed: while Tunisia, at one end, is on track to achieve positive political reform, Syria, Yemen and Libya are experiencing profound internal division and conflict. In Bahrain the uprising was repressed. In Egypt, which epitomizes many regional trends, change will be limited but, for that reason, possibly more long-lasting. Islamist movements did not lead the uprisings but will benefit from them politically even though, in the long run, political participation may lead to their decline. Finally, the article sketches the varied and ongoing geopolitical implications of the uprisings for Turkish, Iranian and Israeli interests and policies. It assesses Barack Obama's response to the 2011 events and suggests that, despite their profound significance for the politics of the region, they may not alter the main contours of US foreign policy in the Middle East in a major way.”  READ MORE

LIFE BEGINS AFTER 25: DEMOGRAPHY AND THE SOCIETAL TIMING OF THE ARAB SPRING. Richard Cincotta, E-Notes, Foreign Policy Institute, January 2012, var. pages. “Much has been written about the circumstances that led Middle East experts to be blindsided by the successful series of popular demonstrations that kicked off the Arab Spring in December 2010. Writing in Foreign Affairs, political scientist Gregory Gausse recounts how regional specialists, like himself, overestimated the strength and cohesiveness of North Africa’s autocracies, as well as the depth of personal allegiances available to these authoritarians among their military’s highest ranks. Another article in the same journal, by Nassim Taleb and Mark Blyth, draws a strikingly dissimilar conclusion from political science’s most recent failure. They describe North Africa’s dramatic political events as a “black swan”— the unpredictable terminus of a buildup of tensions brought to a head by complexly interacting forces. Little, if any, mention has been made, however, of an article describing the relationship between demography and democracy (“How Democracies Grow Up”) that was printed on the pages of Foreign Policy in March of 2008— more than two-and-a-half years before pro-democracy demonstrators took to the streets in Tunisia. In that essay, I describe a simple model driven by population age structure (the distribution of population by age) that can be used to statistically forecast democratization, with reasonable success.” READ MORE

ARAB REVOLTS UPEND OLD ASSUMPTIONS. Augustus Richard Norton, Current History, January 2012, var. pages. “This is a period laden with potential for the growth of freedom, but also heavy with risks and challenges for the United States.” READ MORE


EUROPE MUST ENHANCE DEFENSE INTEGRATION TO AVOID STRATEGIC DECLINE. Erik Brattberg, World Politics Review, 27 Jan 2012, var. pages. “New figures from the European Defense Agency (EDA) confirm what is already well-known: The gap between what Europe and America spend on defense is only growing wider, despite perennial calls from Washington for Europe to share a bigger part of the military burden.” READ MORE

DOES MISSILE DEFENCE IN EUROPE THREATEN RUSSIA? Dean A. Wilkening, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 31-52. “For decades, Russian leaders have expressed concern over American ballistic-missile defence programmes. Early US and Soviet attempts in the 1960s were curtailed by the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972. US proponents of missile defence decried the treaty as an attempt by the Soviet Union to overcome what those proponents believed was America’s lead in BMD technology. Russian embrace of the idea that defences upset strategic stability, the central paradigm of the treaty, was suspect because the Soviet Union spent inordinate sums developing strategic air and civil defences, reflecting its conviction that limiting damage from a hypothetical nuclear attack was a worthwhile, if not achievable, goal.” READ MORE

THE STRUGGLE FOR VALUE IN EUROPEAN DEFENCE. Bastian Giegerich and Alexander Nicoll, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 53-82.  “After decades of trying, Europe still does not get the best value out of the substantial amounts it spends on defence. The experience of the past 20 years suggests that European countries will continue to need to deploy forces in a wide range of operations for a wide range of tasks. Yet defence spending is in a decline that is unlikely to be reversed unless there is a major strategic shock. These two facts suggest that Europe’s armed forces will be increasingly squeezed and forced to look for new solutions. They have been under pressure for some time to deliver more eff ective capabilities with smaller resources, but cuts in spending necessitated by budgetary austerity suggest that these pressures could become acute. European countries can still have strong, and more eff ective, militaries, but to do so they must make bett er use of their fi nancial resources.” READ MORE

CONTAINING IRAN'S MISSILE THREAT. Michael Elleman, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 119-126. “The breathing space offered by a regional flight-test ban could facilitate cooperation on missile defences and the building of greater trust and confidence between Moscow and Washington.” READ MORE